Food Processing: Techniques and Technology Food Processing: Techniques and Technology Техника и технология пищевых производств 2074-9414 2313-1748 84664 10.21603/2074-9414-2024-2-2508 ОБЗОРНАЯ СТАТЬЯ REVIEW ARTICLE ОБЗОРНАЯ СТАТЬЯ Global Market of Chemical Crop Protection Agents: Forecasting Yield Losses and Economic Prospects for Domestic Pesticide Production Мировой рынок химических средств защиты растений: потенциальные потери урожая, тренды и перспективы производства пестицидов для экономики России https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0433-8019 Тареев Александр Иванович Tareev Alexander I. alexander.t@belinrussia.ru https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5889-0899 Березнов Алексей Владимирович Bereznov Alexey V. Смирнов Валерий Валерьевич Smirnov Valery V. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1392-5788 Тареева Анна Александровна Tareeva Anna A. https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7336-7551 Кислая Софья Сергеевна Kislaya Sofya S. ООО «Белин» Москва Россия Belin LLC Moscow Russian Federation Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт агрохимии имени Д. Н. Прянишникова Москва Россия D.N. Pryanishnikov All-Russian Research Institute of Agrochemistry Moscow Russian Federation Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации Москва Россия Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации Москва Россия Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт фитопатологии Большие Вяземы Россия All-Russian Research Institute of Phytopathology Bolshie Vyazemy Russian Federation Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации Москва Россия Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation 03 07 2024 03 07 2024 54 2 310 329 25 12 2023 07 05 2024 https://fptt.ru/en/issues/22705/22662/

Для обеспечения продовольственной безопасности и экономического роста России необходим постоянный мониторинг мирового рынка пестицидов. Это поможет аграриям спрогнозировать стабильность поставок современных средств химизации и обеспечить получение ежегодных высоких урожаев. В работе проанализировали существующие проблемы, которые связаны с защитой растений от вредных организмов, обозначили направления рынка химических средств защиты растений и спрогнозировали их влияние на экономику России. Объектом исследования являлся мировой рынок химических средств защиты растений. Применили комплексный подход, основанный на анализе и синтезе, аналогии, сопоставлении и прогнозировании. Основу исследования составили федеральные законы и постановления Правительства РФ, Министерства сельского хозяйства РФ, Россельхознадзора РФ, данные международной (Phillips McDougal, Kynetec, NBS Китая, Chemexcil Индии) и российской статистики (Росстат, BusinesStat, Zerno.ru и др.), научных и информационно-аналитических баз (eLIBRARY.RU, АгроXXI, AgroPages) за период с 2018 по 2024 гг. В результате исследования сделали обзор современного состояния химических средств защиты растений с акцентом на Индию, Китай и Россию. Оценили потери урожайности в абсолютном и относительном выражении. Показали долю рынка химических средств защиты растений по странам-импортерам и ключевым поставщикам пестицидов в РФ. Выявили основные проблемы, такие как ограничение доступности действующих веществ и квотирование ввоза готовых препаративных форм в РФ. Данное исследование позволило подчеркнуть растущий спрос на химические средства защиты растений, несмотря на ограничения использования или полный запрет ряда опасных пестицидов. Анализ данных свидетельствует о том, что объемы применения химических средств защиты растений в 2024 г. прогнозируются на уровне 2023 г., т. к. на складах РФ имеются большие запасы. Погодные условия также будут благоприятствовать оптимальному росту и развитию растений. Поэтому можно утверждать, что российские аграрии соберут около 142 млн т зерновых, в т. ч. 92–95 млн т пшеницы. Ежегодное проведение подобных исследований будет способствовать уменьшению риска потерь урожайности и получению продукции высокого качества за счет принятия оперативных мер государственного регулирования и господдержки. Это позволит наращивать внутреннее потребление продукции сельского хозяйства и экспортный потенциал страны.

To ensure its food security and economic growth, Russia needs to monitor the global pesticide market because constant monitoring predicts supply stability and provides annual high yields. The article describes the current issues associated with agricultural pesticide, analyzes the development directions on the global pesticide market, and predicts its impact on the Russian economy. To analyze the global market of chemical plant protection products, the authors applied an integrated approach based on analysis, synthesis, analogy, comparison, and forecasting. The research relied on the domestic laws and standards issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance. Other sources included statistics obtained from foreign agencies (Phillips McDougal; Kynetec; NBS, China; Chemexcil, India) and Russian institutions (Rosstat, BusinesStat, Zerno.ru, etc.). The review included articles published in scientific and analytical databases, i.e., eLIBRARY.RU, AgroXXI, and AgroPages in 2018–2024. The analysis concentrated on India, China, and the Russian Federation. It covered absolute and relative harvest losses, as well as the market share of importing countries and key suppliers on Russian pesticide market. The demand for chemical pesticides continues to grow, despite restrictions or prohibitions of some hazardous pesticides. Some active ingredients were partially unavailable while finished formulations were subjected to import quotas. In 2024, Russia will be using as many chemical plant protection products as in 2023 since the domestic warehouses store large reserves. The weather conditions are likely to ensure optimal plant growth. Russian farmers will harvest about 142 million tons of grain, including 92–95 million tons of wheat. If repeated annually, this research may reduce the risk of harvest losses and allow the state to adopt prompt regulation measures to obtain high-quality products, thus increasing the domestic consumption and export potential.

 Продовольственная безопасность урожайность агрохимикаты экономическая эффективность импортозамещение экспорт импорт прогноз синтез контроль об орота пестицидов квотирование импорта Agrochemicals food safety yield economic efficiency export import forecast information technology active ingredients synthesis import substitution control of pesticide turnover import quotas

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